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 NEW: MAPI's annual update of  four in-depth economic reports, including our latest forecasts, on the regional industrial outlook for the United States and three major regions. In December, MAPI issued major updates to its economic forecasts for the United States and other parts of the industrial world. In the event that you missed the initial releases, we are re-sending the links. To access our year-end summary and outlook for the nine major regions click here.

MAPI QuickPoint - A glance at a building block of worldwide business data  MAPI QuickPoint

MAPI Analysis on ISM Index: Factory Downturn Intensifies

The following is an analysis from Cliff Waldman, Economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, regarding the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report for December 2008.

“The December manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management suggests that the factory sector downturn, which is now global in scope, is reaching historic dimensions in the U.S.,” Waldman said. “The widely-followed Purchasing Managers’ Index continued its post-August 2008 plunge to reach the lowest level since January 1980.  Demand has all but evaporated as shown by 13 consecutive monthly declines in the new orders component to the weakest reading in the history of the data, which extend back to January 1948.  Unsurprisingly, no industries reported production growth during the month of December and the persistently falling backlog index suggests that the near-term outlook for production is bleak. 

“Recovery prospects for the U.S. factory sector are now tied to the development and implementation of new monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. and around the world,” he added.  “Absent strong and effective policy stimulus, manufacturing demand is unlikely to recover on its own.”

 
     

Issues in Brief (PDF)  Issues in Brief (PDF)
E-502What Does Obama Presidency Mean for Tort Reform Activities?Frederick T. Stocker
After examining President-elect Obama's thinking and record with regard to tort reform, it is reasonable to conclude that little, if anything, in the way of such measures at the federal level will take place in the next few years. Civil justice reform advocates will likely turn their immediate attention to the states. Possible legislative initiatives include: limiting federal regulations as a preemptive shield against lawsuits in state courts, eliminating caps on certain damages in some workplace-related lawsuits, and ending mandatory arbitration provisions in consumer contracts.
E-501Next Administration Wants To Make Electricity More ExpensiveGarrett A. Vaughn
President-elect Obama has tapped energy advisors who favor very aggressive actions to reduce energy use and associated  GHG emissions.  Many of those actions would target electric utilities because that U.S. economic sector emits the most GHGs than any other.  The experience with federal car mileage standards, which are likel to be repeated for the electric utility sector, illustrates that government mandates are very expensive ways for society to cut energy use and associated GHG emissions—and can threaten the long-term financial stability of the regulated industry.
E-500Corporate Social Responsibility: What's the Buzz?Cam Mackey
There can be no doubt that CSR and Sustainability are being embraced by an increasing number of companies. Several of MAPI's Councils recently collaborated on a survey to understand how our members are organizing to address these market forces and opportunities. This brief article summarizes the results of that survey and includes data on CSR goals and reporting practices, metrics, and the importance of CSR to member organizations.
E-499Showdown for the Chinese Trade Surplus in ManufacturesErnest H. Preeg
The Chinese trade surplus in manufactures was $56.6 billion in October, up 35 percent from October 2007, and the upward trend will continue despite the global economic slowdown.  This will intensify pressure for remedial action early next year as increased jobs in China from a growing surplus are at the expense of job losses in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere.
E-498Are We Giving Short Shrift to Thrift?Donald A. Norman
The personal savings rate has trended downward since the end of 1981 when it stood at 12.2 percent.  In recent years it generally has been less than 1 percent.  The low rate of savings is a problem in that savings help finance investment in plant, equipment, and technologies that drive economic growth. MAPI Economist Don Norman discusses measurement of personal savings rate and number of reasons behind its decline. 
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Retrieving Data

 MAPI Forecasts & Other Data Points

Exports    .9%
Imports    -4.6%

U.S. GDP

    -1%
Unemployment    7.7%
Industrial Production   -4.2%
Industrial Production (less high-tech)  -6.3%
MAPI members can access complete documents of these data points by going to their council homepage.

 Tax Council Survey

 

What function at your company leads the CARO process?

Environmental Management Council
SURVEY ON CONTINGENT ASSET RETIREMENT OBLIGATIONS

 Summary:

The majority of the 14 responses came from public companies (79%). All respondents are required to follow US GAAP for Environmental Liability Disclosures. All but one company’s EHS department has either medium (43%) or high (50%) involvement in the CARO process. A variety of functions lead the CARO process, although most are driven by the Accounting (36%) or Finance (29%) departments. Slightly more than half of respondents update their CARO on an ad-hoc basis. Most respondents also use a third-party consulting firm to help account for uncertainty in estimates.