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Keough's Korner   
Industrial Distribution Editor Jack Keough provides his unique insight, drawing on his nearly 25 years of experience in the industry.


Taking customers for granted

Posted by Jack Keough on January 8, 2009
The newspaper advertisement noted in large letters that my cable company was offering an introductory special for a package deal for Internet, phone and cable television. The price was substantially discounted, so I called the company but was told “this is for new customers only.”

Although I was a long-time customer of this company I wasn’t entitled to the discount.

I left my house and went to my gym, a multi-chain workout center where I have been a member for more than 10 years.

There was a sign posted in the lobby about a special discount for new members. It was half of what I’ve been paying. I asked if I could get the discount but they said no because I wasn’t a “new” customer. They wouldn’t budge. I could, however, resign from the club, wait a day and then become a member again. I would t...Read More

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Midwest manufacturing hits lowest point in 12 years

Posted by Jack Keough on December 30, 2008
The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank said yesterday that its Midwest Factory Index fell to its weakest level in almost 12 years during November as steel and machinery production dropped. The index decreased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted 96.4. This is the lowest reading since January 1997 from a downwardly revised 98.0 in October.
Midwest output was down 10.8 percent compared with last year, much worse than the 7.3 percent decrease in the national output reported earlier by the Fed.
The output for the machinery sector in November was off 2% in November, following a 1.7% drop in October. Regional machinery output was down 6.6% from a year ago, while national output fell 2.6%.
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index is a monthly estimate of manufacturing output in the region by major industries. The survey covers the five states that comprise the seventh Federal Reserve district, which includes Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

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One million job loss forecast for 2009

Posted by Jack Keough on December 22, 2008
A new report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, says that another one million jobs will be lost in 2009. Job losses are expected to reach a five-year-high by year’s end and some economists are predicting that unemployment could rise from the current 6.7 percent to as high as 9 percent, numbers not seen since 1983.

“It will take time for any stimulus measures to work their way through the economy. Even if the measures work, it could take several more months for consumers and corporate America to regain confidence and begin spending again, “ said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas in a statement released early today.

At this point in the recession, there are 2.2 million people who are officially counted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as being unemployed for six months ...Read More

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Workforce reductions to accelerate

Posted by Jack Keough on December 18, 2008


A study conducted by Mercer Consulting shows that one-third of international companies expect to make significant reductions in their already depleted workforces during 2009.

At the high end, respondents representing 48 percent of manufacturing firms and 48 percent of technology firms will likely make substantial workforce reductions. This compares with 24 percent of those representing professional services firms and reductions from retail and wholesaling firms.

The survey, titled Leading Through Unprecedented Times, was conducted in November and yielded responses from more than 1,000 human resource and finance professionals with operations in more than 100 countries.

Among other findings:
• Eighty-one percent of survey respondents expect a decline in their own company’s business performance in 2009.
...Read More

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Baird presents industrial outlook

Posted by Jack Keough on December 10, 2008
Baird, an employee-owned international capital markets, private equity, wealth and asset management firm, recently provided its outlook for the industrial sector during a panel discussion that followed its 38th Annual Industrial Conference. Panel participants included Peter Lisnic, Senior Research Analyst, Chris McMahon, Managing Director and Head of Global Mergers & Acquisitions, and Andrew Brickman, Partner, Baird Capital Partners. Each shared his thoughts on the outlook for the industrial landscape. Here is a recap of the panel discussion that was sent out by Baird as a press release.


Economic Landscape Creates Uncertainty, Fear, Loss of Rationality
The consensus among the industrial companies that presented at the Baird Industrial Conference is that the economy is in a recession. The big unknown is how deep and how long this contr...Read More

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Unemployment rising among small businesses

Posted by Jack Keough on December 5, 2008
A study reveals that small firms are seeing the effects of job cuts. Companies with fewer than 50 employees shed 79,000 employees in November, according to the ADP National Employment Report released last Wednesday. Total U.S employment at companies of all sizes dropped by 250,000. 

The employment reduction marks the first time since early 2002 that the nation's strongest job sector has shown two consecutive months of contraction.

"Consistent with the contracting economy, I think the magnitude of the decline didn't surprise many people, but for first time in the ADP report, there is evidence that job losses are spreading beyond construction and manufacturing sectors," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, which partners with ADP to compile the monthly report.

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The battle for minimum pricing standards

Posted by Jack Keough on December 4, 2008
What exactly is NetEnforcers Inc. and how does this small company impact pricing on everything from consumer goods to power drills by discounters? An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal says a group of major discounters, including eBay Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp., is expected today to call for new laws blocking manufacturers from setting minimum prices on everything from flat-screen TVs to power drills. 

Click here for full story:

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BMHC closing, consolidating facilities

Posted by Jack Keough on November 24, 2008

Reeling from the effects of the housing downturn, the Building Materials Holding Corp. is closing several operations and continuing to restructure its business to meet changing economic conditions.

Robert Mellor, chairman and CEO of BMHC, told analysts in a telephone conference call regarding the company’s third-quarter results: “As part of the continued restructuring plan to align our business to the current environment, we made the difficult decision to close several additional facilities. We are relocating a distribution operation in one of our Puget Sound, Washington, locations. We are winding down our concrete operations in Northern California and we are consolidating our millwork and wall panel operations in Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado, to nearby facilities.”

You can access a complete transcript of BMHC’s third-q...Read More

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Federal Reserve Bank: Recession will last through mid-2009

Posted by Jack Keough on November 20, 2008


The Federal Reserve Bank expects the U.S. economy to be in recession until at least mid-2009, according to a report in the Baltimore Business Journal.

Minutes from the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting in late October showed a consensus from members that the U.S. economy has been contracting since this summer. The contraction is expected to continue during the first two quarters of 2009, although some economists in the meeting said it could last beyond that, according to the newspaper.  

“Participants generally expected the economy to contract moderately in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, and agreed that the downside risks to growth had increased,” said minutes from the central bank’s meeting. Those notes were released Wednesday. 

The Fed said industrial production and co...Read More

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Beaulieu: We are in a recession

Posted by Jack Keough on November 6, 2008
Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research, an economist who has been popular on the convention circuit for many years, says the economy is now in a recession that will be similar to the depths of the severe recession of the early 1980s.

Beaulieu, speaking at the PTDA Industry Summit last week, says that 2009 will be worse than a slow 2010, before a mild recovery begins in 2011, 2012 and 2013. His forecast is more pessimistic than the one he gave a year ago.

Among other items, Beaulieu said:

• Home prices will continue lower until late 2009 or early 2010.

• South America will feel the downturn. Brazil, which has had a very strong economy, will move into a recessionary stance.

• The comparison between this recession and the “Great Depression” doesn’t appl...Read More

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Airgas CEO McCausland: McCain was right, the economy is sound

Posted by Jack Keough on October 27, 2008
Peter McCausland, chairman and CEO of Airgas, made it clear during a recent conference call with financial analysts that he doesn’t agree with the “geniuses” predicting another Depression and defended Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain’s comments that the economy is “fundamentally strong.”

McCausland, one of the most-well respected CEO’s in the distribution business, said that McCain wasn’t talking about homebuilders, many of which are struggling, or the people on Wall Street who were paid “absurdly high salaries and bonuses for 15 years,” nor about people who specialize in credit default swaps or short selling.

In a transcript of the call provided by www.seekingalpha.com, McCausland said: 

“He was talking about those places where real goods are produced ...Read More

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Danaher to accelerate job cuts; closing plants

Posted by Jack Keough on October 17, 2008
The Danaher Corporation, a diversified manufacturer of tools and components, professional instrumentation and industrial technologies plans to accelerate its restructuring plans begun late last year that will lead to more than 1,000 positions being eliminated and a dozen facilities closed. 

H. Lawrence Culp, Jr., president and CEO of Danaher, said in a investor call with financial analysts that “We’ve been on a steady pace, I think, of restructuring since the second half of last year when we began to have concerns about the trajectory of the economy. Obviously we couldn’t call what’s happened here in the last month, but certainly given recent events we’re of the view that we should accelerate the plans that have been on the drawing boards as we get ready for 2009, “ Culp said. 

“So what we’re really t...Read More

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